Three questions that could shape a second Trump administration’s goals for space

That was President-elect Donald Trump at a rally in North Carolina in September. Now, Trump will return to the White House in January with Republicans in control of the House and Senate and an opportunity to put into action any plans he has for space.

Trump’s plans for a second term, and how they may differ from the administration’s first go-around, may center on three questions:

How does a newfound kinship between Trump and Elon Musk play out?

This is a central question on any discussion of missions to the moon, Mars and possibly space funding at large. Musk is the founder and chief executive of SpaceX, the rocket company that handles launches for NASA and the U.S. Space Force. It’s also the operator of Starlink, the megaconstellation that provides communications around the world. Notably, last week, Musk was reportedly on a call between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Musk is also one of the most vocal activists to get astronauts to Mars. On Oct. 30, he tweeted, “I think @realDonaldTrump winning makes a big difference in humanity getting to Mars and making life multiplanetary.” Similarly, on Oct. 13, he wrote, “If Trump is not elected, the slow strangulation of overregulation will stop humanity from reaching Mars.”

And, as mentioned above, Trump has shared bold timelines for Mars. Will that chronology transfer to budgets for those programs? What kind of policy changes could accompany them? Will Musk sway the answer? And, as Trump has tasked Musk to lead a commission to rid government waste, what space programs may be scaled back?

In addition, SpaceX has clashed with the Federal Communications Commission. The membership of the commission will switch to a Republican majority and those members have signaled they would likely focus on accelerating approval of some satellite technology, including Starlink and Amazon’s Kuiper satellites.

How will leadership in the Department of Defense and intelligence community think about space?

In the Project 2025 document from the Heritage Foundation offering policy suggestions, former Defense Secretary Christopher Miller wrote that one focus area in space should be to “reestablish offensive capabilities to guarantee a favorable balance of forces, efficiently manage the full deterrence spectrum, and seriously complicate enemy calculations of a successful first strike against U.S. space assets.”

Miller also hinted at starting a Space Force Academy and to invest more in space-based missile defense.

He also encouraged following the acquisition model of the Space Development Agency.

Arguably Trump’s signature achievement for space during his first administration was the creation of the Space Force. The idea had been proposed earlier by two leaders in the House Armed Services Committee: former Rep. Jim Cooper, a Democrat from Tennessee, and Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican from Alabama. Rogers is now the chair of the House Armed Services Committee and said he would work with Trump to move U.S. Space Command — a unified combatant command — to move from Colorado Springs, where it’s currently located and supported by the Biden administration, to Huntsville, Alabama.

Trump also said in August he would support creating a Space National Guard, an idea that’s been debated and faced resistance from governors.

How might NASA’s budget shift?

Space insiders expect big changes at NASA. But the first step will be funding.

Greg Autry, the associate provost for space commercialization and strategy at the University of Central Florida and the leader of the Trump administration's transition team with NASA in 2016, said in a September podcast with the Planetary Society that it could be difficult for space to be top of mind.

“Clearly, we've got a war in Ukraine and the disaster in the Middle East and inflation and border issues and all those things, right?,” he said. “That's a problem because getting attention for space is going to be harder than it was in 2016.”

Another significant change may be in management of the Artemis moon exploration program. A NASA Inspector General report tagged the program’s costs at more than $93 billion from 2012 to 2025.

“More and more money is going to Artemis because it's out of control and all of those components are taking longer and need more money,” Autry said. “We are now eight years after our transition team got President Trump to say, ‘Let's go to the moon.’ Eight years later, we've done nothing except get ready. These problems are engineering problems that can be solved with sufficient money and sufficient passion. We need alacrity and we don't have it.”