More launches, more satellites and a busier low-Earth orbit equals more business for LeoLabs

On Aug. 6, China launched the first batch of what’s expected to be a very large constellation of roughly 14,000 broadband multimedia satellites.

Less than 14 hours later, radars from the space traffic management company LeoLabs, showed the rocket body from the launch had broken up, creating more than 700 pieces of debris in low-Earth orbit.

The incident was the latest in a long line of debris-generating events to worry the space community, who are increasingly concerned about the possibility of collisions as low earth orbit becomes a popular operating ground for thousands of new satellites.

Just a few weeks earlier, on June 26, LeoLabs detected another such incident when a non-operational Russian spacecraft known as Resurs P1 was part of a debris cloud that created at least 250 fragments. The company’s best guess is that the event was caused by a “low intensity explosion” that may have started with a collision from a small fragment, according to a LinkedIn post.

For LeoLabs, a burgeoning space economy in low-Earth orbit is driving its business. The same day China’s rocket body broke up, the California-based company announced it had booked more than $20 million in contracts thus far in 2024 and has 100% year-over-year revenue growth. Company officials declined to offer more specifics.

The financials are one example of how the market for space situational awareness data, including object detection and tracking, has transitioned from a luxury to a necessity for satellite operators and governments. LeoLabs’ own numbers show the number of satellites in low-Earth orbit has jumped from 900 in 2019 to roughly 9,000 this year. That’s due in large part to the proliferation of SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellites.

“For more exquisite uses, if you want to have a little bit better sense, or something specifically that you want to be aware of, this is where those [space situational awareness] companies come in handy,” said Victoria Samson, chief director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to the long-term sustainability of space. “And they've got great capabilities that, I would argue, are pretty much as good as the U.S. government.”

In February, LeoLabs named longtime Maxar Technologies executive Tony Frazier as its new leader. In an Aug. 20 interview, he pointed to several factors, including the increased cadence of rocket launches and the soaring investment in space, as driving new business.

In the last 2.5 years, LeoLabs has tracked nearly 1 million high-probability conjunctions in low-Earth orbit. For each of these events, the company delivers 10 to 20 conjunction data messages, basically warning operators they may be in a path to danger.

The company relies on 10 radars at six sites and as a result of the increased need for detailed information, Frazier said, the company is working on upgrading its radars to provide more detailed analysis to its customers. In May, the company announced it will design, build, and test a prototype S-band 2-D radar for the Department of Defense as part of a small business contract through AFWERX, the innovation arm of the U.S. Air Force.

While many of its radars can be thought of as emitting a pencil beam that could detect an object in orbit roughly every 90 minutes, the S-band radar would emit a cone and allow for more sophisticated tracking. The company is also developing a new UHF band radar.

Mike Gruss is a freelance journalist based in northern Virginia. Previously, he was editor-in-chief of Sightline Media Group, where he led publications including Defense News and Military Times, and has worked as the military reporter at SpaceNews.