Why critical minerals are central to America’s future and how we can win the supply-chain race

The material foundations of global power have shifted. Petroleum once defined strategic dominance, today, its critical minerals, the elements that power our defense systems, electric vehicles, clean energy infrastructure, and advanced semiconductors.

The strategic imperative

The U.S. government has recognized this reality. In March 2025, President Trump signed “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production”, defining mineral production broadly, from mining to refining and derivative manufacturing, as essential to national security. A follow-on order, “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources,” directed accelerated development of seabed deposits of nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, titanium, and rare earth elements. A third, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, ordered an investigation into foreign control of processed critical minerals and derivative products.  Collectively, these actions signal a new era: critical minerals are no longer just economic commodities, they are core to America’s industrial and military readiness.

Why this matters

Three factors drive the urgency:

1. Defense and industrial dependency: Critical minerals and their derivatives, from magnets to batteries to guidance systems, underpin our defense and energy sectors. Yet the U.S. remains heavily reliant on foreign sources for key materials.
2. Supply-chain vulnerability: China dominates global refining and processing, controlling leverage points that could cripple U.S. industries through export restrictions or market manipulation.
3. Technological and economic opportunity: The transition to clean energy, autonomous systems, and advanced manufacturing demands reliable supplies of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths. Failing to secure adequate domestic supply threatens both our economy and national security.

The China factor and the role of DOE and DoW

This is not just an economic contest, it is a strategic one. China’s recent restrictions on gallium and germanium exports show how mineral dominance can become a geopolitical weapon.  The Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of War (DoW) must lead the response. DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains is already investing hundreds of millions to expand domestic processing and recycling capabilities. The DoW must elevate minerals to the same strategic footing as petroleum or munitions, integrating them into defense industrial-base planning, stockpiling, and acquisition strategies. Our ability to build the next generation of hypersonics, quantum systems, and advanced weapons depends on controlling the elemental building blocks.

Modeling and process innovation: OLI systems as a force multiplier

Technology, not just geology, will determine who wins this race. Locating ore is no longer enough, nations must process, refine, separate, recover, and recycle materials efficiently and sustainably.  That is where OLI Systems leads. A pioneer in thermodynamic modeling, OLI’s software helps engineers simulate mineral behavior, optimize separation chemistry, and design recycling systems before they are built, saving time, cost, and risk. Recently, OLI secured a DOE contract extension to advance material recovery and support the DOE’s Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI) research ecosystem. In a world where inefficiency in refining or recycling can cripple a supply chain, modeling firms like OLI are indispensable. They are the quiet enablers ensuring America’s mineral future is both technically sound and economically viable.

Policy priorities

To convert policy into capability, the U.S. must:

• Accelerate permitting and reform regulation to move at the speed of strategic necessity while maintaining environmental standards.
• Scale processing and refining capacity to ensure the full value chain, from ore to finished product, exists on American soil or within allied nations.
• Invest in modeling, simulation, and recycling innovation and leverage DOE and DoW funding to de-risk scale-up and improve efficiency.
• Build and reinforce alliances by partnering with allies like Australia and Canada to diversify supply and reduce vulnerability.
• Embed critical minerals into the defense industrial base. We must treat them like strategic fuels, maintaining surge capacity and resilient production.

The race Is real

China’s control of downstream processing remains daunting. The U.S. has the executive framework in place, but execution, across DOE, DoW, industry, and innovation networks will decide whether America leads or fails.  OLI Systems’ modeling expertise, DOE’s funding and coordination, and DoW’s strategic planning must converge to forge a secure, modern mineral supply chain.

Critical minerals are no longer just materials, they are the foundation of national strength. The executive orders provide direction. OLI’s innovation makes progress tangible. For DOE, DoW, and American industry, the imperative is clear: act now or cede the future to those who already control it.  The minerals that power our energy, economy, and defense are the new battleground of global competition. America cannot afford to lose this race.